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Why Charter and Disney Are Fighting, and What It Means for Viewers

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On its surface, the quarrel is about how much Disney can charge Charter for its content, and how much Charter’s customers will pay for access to Disney’s streaming apps. But it could also have wider consequences. Charter and Disney are two of the biggest players in the cable and TV industries, and they disagree over the best way to distribute movies and TV shows in an era when traditional viewership is eroding and streaming is on the rise.

Fights between cable companies and content providers happen all the time. Media companies like Disney generally want to charge more for their content, and cable providers like Charter are trying to minimize their costs at a time of declining subscribers. Until an agreement is reached, TV channels often go dark on cable and satellite TV providers for days or weeks at a time, frustrating viewers who believe they are not getting their money’s worth.

Charter is positioning the blackout of Disney’s channels, including ESPN, as a fight over the future of TV. The company took the unusual step of scheduling an early-morning news conference on Friday to stake out its position, saying it tried and failed to persuade Disney to agree to a “transformative deal” that would combine traditional TV packages and subscriptions to streaming apps. Disney has said it has “proposed creative ways to make Disney’s direct-to-consumer services available to their Spectrum TV subscribers.”

Disney fired back at Charter on Friday, blaming the cable company for refusing to enter a new agreement that “reflects market-based terms.” Disney also said in a statement that it had spent billions of dollars on its streaming services, which include Disney+ and ESPN+, and that Charter wanted to give them away to its subscribers free of charge.

“Charter’s actions are a disservice to consumers ahead of the kickoff for the college football season on ABC and ESPN’s networks,” Disney said in a statement.

Until Disney and Charter reach an agreement, the company’s TV channels, including ESPN, will be dark for the 15 million people who subscribe to Charter’s Spectrum service. For many, that will mean no access to to the U.S. Open tennis tournament, no college football on ESPN and no Saturday morning cartoons like “Bluey” on the Disney Channel.

Still, viewers have some alternatives. Much of Disney’s library of content is available on Disney+, meaning viewers willing to pay a monthly fee can circumvent parts of the cable blackout. And streaming services like YouTube TV still carry the ABC broadcast network and its coverage of the U.S. Open.

There’s a chance that with Disney’s channels on Spectrum going dark, Charter’s customers might just cancel their subscriptions and opt for alternatives. But that’s a risk Charter has shown it is willing to take, especially as its business transitions away from cable and toward subscriptions for products like broadband internet and wireless service.

BMW Vision Neue Klasse revealed with stunning design, huge EV improvements

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Feast your eyes on the BMW Vision Neue Klasse. It’s a four-door sedan concept that previews, well, everything that BMW has coming for us in the next few years.

BMW says that its design is a pared-back simplification of the essentials we’re accustomed to from BMW design, but to us it looks like a reinvention of the brand’s design language in its entirety with a touch of retro flare thrown in via the silhouette. For those keeping track of BMW’s latest concept vehicles, you’ll also see a whole lot of the i Vision Dee in the Neue Klasse. In fact, it looks more like an evolution of that vehicle than anything else.

Drilling down into some of the details, the Neue Klasse features a new kidney grille that is all light and no actual grille. Instead of the vertical orientation we’re quickly growing accustomed to in other BMW models, though, this one stretches across the face horizontally, and it integrates all of the driver assist sensors to keep the front end looking cleaner. As you approach the Neue Klasse, it plays a three-dimensional lighting effect across the grille that’s meant to act as communication to its driver. Then, when you get to the door, E Ink elements in the lower side windows highlight where you should place your hand to open the door. Place your hand in the right spot, and the doors pop open all by themselves. The taillight lighting is just as exotic, as BMW says it consists of 3D-printed light elements that are extended across several layers to create the perception of depth looking into them.

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As for the references to BMWs of yore, designers tell us that it chose to highlight a steeply forward-slanting shark nose front-end, powerful wheel arches and the retracted greenhouse. All that said, its super simplistic slab-sided body and general design language looks nothing like the BMW models on the road today. BMW won’t say so explicitly, but considering the size of the Neue Klasse, we have a feeling this design is previewing a future electric 3 Series product.

BMW threw down a bunch of numbers in the EV space for how the incoming Neue Klasse platform and array of EVs will be improved over its current crop of EVs out there. In reference to the current i4, BMW says newly-developed battery cells (round instead of prismatic) will have a 20% higher energy density than today. The charging speed of Neue Klasse EVs will be 30% faster, and the overall vehicle driving efficiency – thanks to the latest generation of BMW’s electric motors, a new heat pump and optimized cooling – will increase by up to 25%. That number jumps to 40% in winter versus today, mostly thanks to the heat pump. In all, BMW believes this will amount to an approximate 30% range increase to a vehicle like the BMW i4. The best-rated i4 right now for range is the eDrive40 at 307 miles per EPA testing. With this new tech, that model would theoretically be good for about 400 miles of driving.

That number still doesn’t knock off the Lucids of the world, but it’s remarkably good for a vehicle in that size and price category. The charging improvement is another boon, as the current max rate of 200 kW would increase to 260 kW, making it faster than Tesla’s vehicles and nearing the charge speed of more expensive models like the Porsche Taycan and Audi E-Tron GT.

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The interior of this Neue Klasse is bound to be both the most loved and the most controversial element. For starters, yes, that is yellow-ish corduroy upholstery on the seats – BMW tells us it’s considering using more non-leather materials in future interiors. All of the mustard-like fabric is broken up with an off-white color used on the floor, center console, doors and elsewhere. It very much feels like a tastefully-designed living room inside the Neue Klasse, and the sheer amount of glass with a low beltline emphasizes the amount of light that filters into the cabin. There’s no doubting how cool and beautiful it all looks, but the tech on display is arguably the real star of the show.

Here, we see the next generation of BMW iDrive, a more formed version of the BMW Panoramic Vision display and the new iDrive “controller.” Starting with the screen that now features a new shape and sits alone in what would be the center stack area (though when asked, BMW said it’s still considering keeping the volume knob around), it officially ditches the iDrive rotary knob. It’s all touchscreen now, and it features new software that re-thinks the structure and operation of iDrive how we know it today. Integrated with the main display is the fancy, full-width Panoramic Vision. BMW says it will be available on Neue Klasse vehicles, and it’s going to project the display across the entire lower portion of the windshield such that it’s both in the driver’s and passenger’s line of sight. BMW designers assured us it will work with polarized sunglasses, unlike many head-up displays currently in production. What you’ll see on the Panoramic Vision will generally be an extension of the touch display. Plus, you’ll be able to control via a new touch controller on the right spoke of the steering wheel or via the central touchscreen if you prefer. A demonstration showed that you can project navigation directions, media controls and more to the Panoramic Display, and it sure does look nifty when you’re in the car. We’ll be very intrigued to try out a production version of the new tech.

You’ll be able to see the Neue Klasse at the Munich Motor Show if you happen to be in Germany, but more importantly, you should expect to see many of its features, tech and design make it into future BMW EVs. That future isn’t very far away either, as BMW says we should start to see the Neue Klasse hit the road in 2025.

Mitch McConnell May Be Experiencing Small Seizures, Doctors Suggest

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A four-line letter, signed by the attending physician of Congress and released by Senator Mitch McConnell on Thursday, suggested that his recent spells of speechlessness were linked to “occasional lightheadedness” perhaps brought on by his recovery from a concussion last winter or “dehydration.”

But seven neurologists, relying on what they described as unusually revealing video of Mr. McConnell freezing up in public twice recently, said in interviews Thursday and Friday that the episodes captured in real time likely pointed to more serious medical problems afflicting the longtime Republican leader.

Some of the neurologists, while cautioning that they could not diagnose the minority leader from afar, said that the letter and other comments from Mr. McConnell’s office appeared to fall short of explaining why he abruptly stopped speaking during news conferences in late July and again on Wednesday.

“If I gave that tape to a medical student and that was his explanation, I’d fail him,” said Dr. Orrin Devinsky, a professor of neurology at the NYU Grossman School of Medicine, referring to the account given by the attending physician of Congress on Thursday. “Medically, these episodes need to be taken seriously.”

The neurologists said that the episodes justified close medical attention and could prompt treatment to keep them from recurring. While several possibilities were suggested, including mini-strokes, doctors said that the spells appeared most consistent with focal seizures, which are electrical surges in one region of the brain.

The senator’s aides have not revealed what type of follow-up care Mr. McConnell may be receiving. Doug Andres, a spokesman for the senator, said on Friday he had nothing to add beyond the letter by the Congressional physician, Dr. Brian P. Monahan, who did not respond to requests for comment.

More details about the medical history of Mr. McConnell, 81, including whether he has been having such episodes off camera, would also help rule out other possible explanations for the spells, neurologists said.

Whether caused by seizures or mini-strokes or something else, spells like Mr. McConnell’s would not preclude most patients from working or socializing normally, doctors said.

“Seizures have a stigma in our society, and that’s unfortunate because these are very brief electrical interruptions in behavior,” said Dr. Jeffrey Saver, a professor of neurology at U.C.L.A. “Between those rare episodes, which are usually well controlled with medicines, people function perfectly normally.”

Still, experts said that seizures carried some elevated risk of cognitive or behavioral problems and could affect older patients differently.

Rarely does the public get as complete a glimpse of a serious medical event in a public figure as it did twice in recent weeks with Mr. McConnell. For neurologists, videos like those showing Mr. McConnell from the moment he appeared to lose the ability to speak are far more than mere curiosities.

They can help form the basis of a diagnosis, as homemade videos of everyday patients occasionally do in standard neurology practices.

“They’re very helpful, because you’re not subject to the vagaries of someone’s description and you can capture the beginning of it, which is important especially for seizures,” said Dr. Anthony Kim, a professor of neurology at the University of California, San Francisco.

Details as small as the direction in which people’s eyes are pointed during such an episode offer potential clues about the cause, Dr. Kim said.

After watching Mr. McConnell’s symptoms play out — his abrupt stop in speech, his eyes fixed in the distance, his seeming recovery after about 30 seconds — Dr. Kim said that “the possibility at the top of my list would be a seizure.”

That Mr. McConnell’s second spell so closely mirrored the first pointed even more strongly to a seizure, neurologists said.

Mini-strokes, which result from a clot that reduces blood flow to the brain, can also cause brief periods of impaired speech. But they rarely produce the same constellation of symptoms each time they recur, given that clots are unlikely to travel at random to the same part of the brain twice.

Focal seizures, on the other hand, are often triggered by an irregularity in one specific part of the brain, creating what doctors refer to as stereotypic symptoms. They are known to stop patients dead in their tracks, seeming to cut them off from their surroundings.

Patients can often respond reflexively to questions during such an episode — as Mr. McConnell did on Wednesday, saying “yeah” when asked if he had heard a reporter’s question — even if they appear unable to voice their thoughts or engage with their environment.

Mr. McConnell suffered a concussion in March, a risk factor for seizures. The seizures can be caused by a bleed in the brain or a scar from a traumatic head injury. Previous strokes or other kinds of damage to brain tissue can also lead to seizures in older people, who as a group experience the onset of seizures almost as often as children do.

Some seizures are provoked by triggers like abnormal blood sugar levels. But if someone has had two seizures that cannot be explained in that way, neurologists said that would typically be enough for a diagnosis of epilepsy, a common neurological disorder affecting more than three million Americans that can arise at any age. They would generally prescribe anti-seizure medication.

“Two seizures you definitely would want to treat,” said Dr. Sami Khella, the chief of neurology at Penn Presbyterian Medical Center. “You don’t want them to happen — they’re not good for you.”

Many patients function completely normally and show normal brain wave activity between seizures, allowing them to remain active and working even as some may end up forgoing activities like driving.

But they do cause patients to miss periods of time during episodes. A seizure at an inopportune moment, like when crossing the street, can be dangerous. And focal seizures involving one region of the brain can generalize, causing episodes characterized by jerking movements or epileptic spasms.

Beyond that, one or two seizures can beget more, a cycle that neurologists try to interrupt with treatment. “The more the brain seizes, the more it learns to seize,” Dr. Khella said.

Other complications can follow. A phenomenon known as sudden, unexpected death in epilepsy kills an estimated one in 1,000 people with epilepsy each year.

“If you do get epilepsy as an elderly individual, there are concerns about things like memory, about cognitive function, because your resilience at 80 is going to be far less than when you’re 20 or 30,” said Dr. Devinsky, who directs NYU Langone’s Comprehensive Epilepsy Center.

Neurologists said they could not rule out other possible explanations for Mr. McConnell’s episodes.

Dr. Gavin Britz, a neurosurgeon at Houston Methodist, said he would want to exclude Parkinson’s disease, which can also cause freezing episodes.

But neurologists agreed that suggestions that Mr. McConnell was merely lightheaded, while possible, were difficult to square with the video. Dehydration could exacerbate other conditions, they said, but such patients would be unlikely to stay upright or recover so quickly without fluids, as Mr. McConnell appeared to do.

“We don’t have 100 percent information, so we’re kind of in the dark,” Dr. Devinsky said. “But we do have this very powerful clinical information, which is quite honestly how I have to diagnose seizures and epilepsy all the time, often without the video.”

Federal Officials Propose New Nursing Home Standards to Increase Staffing

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The nation’s most thinly staffed nursing homes would be required to hire more workers under new rules proposed on Friday by the Biden administration, the greatest change to federal nursing home regulations in three decades.

The proposed standard was prompted by the industry’s troubled performance earlier in the coronavirus pandemic, when 200,000 nursing home residents died. But the proposal falls far short of what both the industry and patient advocates believe is needed to improve care for most of the 1.2 million Americans in nursing homes.

The proposal, by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, would require all facilities to increase staff up to certain minimum levels, but it included no money for nursing homes to pay for the new hires.

C.M.S. estimated that three-quarters of the nation’s 15,000 homes would need to add staff members. But the increases at many of those facilities would be minor, as the average nursing home already employs nurses and aides at, or very close to, the proposed levels.

“The standards are a lot lower than what a lot of experts, including myself, have called for over the years,” said David Grabowski, a professor of health care policy at Harvard Medical School. “There are some real positives in here, but I wish the administration had gone further.”

The government said it would exempt nursing homes from punishment if they could prove that there was a local worker shortage and that the facilities had made sincere efforts to recruit employees.

“Fundamentally, this standard is wholly inadequate to meet the needs of nursing home residents,” said Richard Mollot, the executive director of the Long Term Care Community Coalition, an advocacy group based in New York.

Executives in the nursing home industry said that without extra money from Medicare or Medicaid — the two federal insurers that pay for most nursing home care — the requirement would be financially unattainable.

“It’s meaningless to mandate staffing levels that cannot be met,” Katie Smith Sloan, the president and chief executive of LeadingAge, an association that includes nonprofit nursing homes, said in a statement. “There are simply no people to hire — especially nurses. The proposed rule requires that nursing homes hire additional staff. But where are they coming from?”

The new staffing standard would require homes to have daily average nurse staffing levels amounting to at least 0.55 hours per resident. That translates to one registered nurse for every 44 residents. But that is below what the average nursing home already provides, which is 0.66 hours per resident, a 1:36 ratio, federal records show.

At least one registered nurse would have to be on duty at all times under the proposed plan — one of the biggest changes for the facilities, as they currently must have nurses for only eight consecutive hours each day.

The proposed rule also calls for 2.45 nurse aide hours per resident per day, meaning a ratio of about one aide for every 10 residents. While the federal government sets no specific staffing requirements for nurse aides, the average home already provides 2.22 nurse aide hours a day, a ratio of about 1:11.

“The federal minimum staffing standards proposed by C.M.S. are robust yet achievable,” the agency said in a statement. “The proposal also makes clear that the numerical staffing levels are a floor — not a ceiling — for safe staffing.”

Registered nurses are at the top of the chain of command at nursing homes, overseeing assessments of residents and handling complex clinical tasks. Nurses delegate more straightforward clinical roles to licensed practical nurses.

Certified nurse assistants, often called nurse aides, are generally the most plentiful in a nursing home and help residents with basic needs like bathing, getting out of bed and eating.

On average, registered nurses make $37 an hour while licensed practical nurses earn $28 an hour, according to C.M.S. Aides often start at minimum wage or slightly above, earning $17 an hour on average.

“People have more choice,” said Tina Sandri, the chief executive of Forest Hills of DC, a nursing home in Washington, referring to nursing home staff. “They can go to hospitals and make more and do less than they do here in a nursing home.”

“We’ve lost staff to hospitals that had $20,000 signing bonuses,” she added, “and as a nonprofit, we can’t compete with that.”

Nursing home officials say they cannot afford to pay higher wages because state Medicaid programs reimburse them too little. Patient advocates, however, note that some for-profit homes are providing substantial returns to investors.

Medicare and Medicaid spent $95 billion on nursing home care and retirement community care in 2021, according to C.M.S. The agency estimated that the new standards would cost homes another $4 billion in three years, when all homes except those in rural areas would need to comply. Rural homes would have five years.

Ellen Quirk, a retired certified nurse assistant in Hayes, Va., recalled that sometimes she would care for all of the residents on a single floor in the nursing home, which could be 20 or more people, by herself. It’s challenging for an aide to care for more than five to seven people at a time, she said.

“If it’s more than that, then things aren’t done properly,” Ms. Quirk, 63, said. “Things are skipped over, like a bath or changing them every couple of hours or feeding them properly.”

“I’ve seen patients that roll over and fall out of bed,” she added. “Sometimes they get bed sores because beds are saturated in urine for hours and hours.”

The nursing home industry has been pressing federal and state governments to pay for a bevy of enticements to long-term care workers, including educational subsidies for those who have worked in nursing homes, loan forgiveness and career opportunities for certified nursing assistants working toward their nursing degrees.

The administration said it would offer $75 million in scholarships and tuition as part of the new proposal. The administration is accepting comments for the next 60 days before it finalizes the new standard.

Jordan Rau is a senior correspondent at KFF Health News in Washington, D.C.

In Italy, Giving a Long Unoccupied Farmhouse a Loving Restoration

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This article is part of our Design special section about new interpretations of antique design styles.


One might describe Andrew Trotter’s passion for Puglia, in southern Italy, as a slow burn. The British-born, Barcelona-based designer first visited the region, which forms the heel of Italy’s geographic boot, about a decade ago. His close friend Carlo Lanzini planned to create a boutique hotel that would cater to the growing number of travelers lured by Puglia’s charming medieval villages, its sun-bleached landscape dotted with ancient olive groves and its nearly 500 miles of coastline, featuring picturesque coves with limestone cliffs and lovely sand beaches.

Mr. Lanzini enlisted his help in finding and renovating a masseria, the name of the traditional whitewashed farmhouses found across the Pugliese countryside. “We went twice, both times in the winter, and I didn’t actually like it very much,” said Mr. Trotter. “It’s a place that’s grown on me rather than an immediate love.”

At that time Mr. Trotter, who is 51, had recently left a career in fashion, launched a short-lived Barcelona design shop and co-founded Openhouse, a boutique and gallery that evolved into a semiannual interiors and lifestyle magazine, with his friend Mari Luz Vidal, a photographer. Having studied interior design and spent a year at the London firm of Anouska Hempel in the early ’90s, it was a return to his roots.

When Mr. Lanzini ultimately decided to construct a new masseria-inspired building for his hotel venture, near the town of Ostuni, Mr. Trotter put himself forward to oversee its design. After some convincing, he got the gig, and the resulting six-guestroom Masseria Moroseta “very quickly became a little bit famous,” as Mr. Trotter put it, leading to other commissions designing and renovating vacation homes in Puglia, including for Mr. Lanzini as well as new clients who admired Mr. Trotter’s minimalist yet warm aesthetic.

While Studio Andrew Trotter soon had projects in locations around the world, Mr. Trotter and his domestic partner — the firm’s business manager, Marcelo Martinez, 31, who is Spanish — continued to travel to Puglia regularly. They decided to look for a residence in the region that could serve as their base and as an income-generating rental property when they weren’t using it. Their search led them to the southern Pugliese town of Soleto, in the heart of the Salento peninsula, where a centuries-old house, tucked into a cobbled alley, caught their attention. “The town is very sleepy, and it’s something I love about the real south of Puglia, which is very untouristic. In the smaller villages you feel like you’re in a movie, like ‘Cinema Paradiso,’” Mr. Trotter said, adding, “We’re the youngest people in Soleto.”

Even though an offer had already been made on the house, the couple convinced the agent to let them have a look. Behind the front wall and arched stone gate with large wooden doors, an open-air courtyard served as the entry to the two-story residence. Expanded in stages over time, the house incorporated two vaulted chapels, one estimated to be 400 years old, while parts of the upper floor were believed to have been added as recently as the 1920s.

The family that previously owned the property hadn’t used it in a long time, but many of their belongings remained, untouched. “There were clothes and furniture, artwork, photos of the family,” said Mr. Trotter. “But for about 20 years, nobody had come to the house. Nothing worked. There was no running water, no electricity. There was a hole in the back garden where the sewage went to.”

Not to mention, there was only one bathroom, the walls were wonky and decaying, and the only way to climb to the second floor was by an exterior staircase in the front courtyard. “That quirkiness is what gives charm to the house,” Mr. Martinez said. Features like a 15-foot vaulted ground-floor ceiling gave the interior a character and mood that a mere glimpse at plans and snapshots did not reveal.

Also, the house was exactly the size they wanted, and it had a garden with enough space for a small pool. When the other offer fell through, they “just went for it,” Mr. Trotter said. (He declined to divulge how much the couple paid for the property.)

Mr. Trotter and Mr. Martinez, who discussed the project over Zoom from Barcelona, set about updating the house for contemporary living, making it comfortable and simply stylish, while retaining as many elements as possible to preserve the home’s distinctiveness and historic feeling. They dubbed it Casa Soleto.

For convenience and rentability, they added three upstairs baths so that each bedroom has its own, plus a powder room on the ground floor, all of which meant putting in extensive plumbing. New electrical systems were installed, though lighting was kept minimal. Many of the antique doors and existing floors — terrazzo tile or polished concrete — were preserved, and portions of the roof and walls were repaired.

On the ground floor, where the rustic walls were built with stones and earth up to three feet thick, Mr. Trotter and Mr. Martinez had to replace expanses of cement plaster added in the last century that were trapping moisture within. Throughout the house the walls have been refinished in subtly textured lime plasters or washes, in earthy tones from dusty beige to chocolaty brown to pale green. All were made by Domingue Architectural Finishes, one of a handful of firms the couple partnered with on the project.

The Scandinavian furniture company Frama provided an assortment of clean-lined wood tables, chairs and stools that complemented the mix of antiques and simple upholstered seating clad in solid, neutral linens. The Australian carpet maker Armadillo provided the jute rugs that are found in most rooms. (In exchange for their contributions, the companies can use Casa Soleto’s images and story in their marketing.)

Mr. Trotter and Mr. Martinez, who spoke by phone and over Zoom, kept some of the furniture left by the previous owners, including large wooden gun cases they repurposed as coffee tables, a few beds with distinctive headboards and, in the largest bedroom, a glass-front cabinet filled with old books accumulated by the doctor who once owned the house.

Resisting the urge to contemporize the kitchen, they instead worked with local craftsmen to restore the wood cabinets, replicating them for additional storage, and to create fronts for a built-in refrigerator and dishwasher. They installed an ILVE range that’s “quite old school,” said Mr. Martinez. “The goal was to make everything functional and up-to-date, but without trying to do something too contemporary or out of place.”

The couple used a fair amount of the artwork that had been left hanging on the walls, a mix of unattributed landscapes, still lifes and portraits. But they also commissioned new works from Eleanor Herbosch, an Antwerp-based artist who made three abstract paintings mixing ink with soil excavated from beneath the home and from the garden.

Ms. Herbosch’s works hang prominently in the atmospheric dining room, which occupies the later of the two chapels, at the front of the house, and a cozy lounge in the older chapel at the back, where they opted for a darker, moodier palette. “We wanted it to be a bit like a cave where you go and watch a film or just hang out, read a book,” Mr. Trotter said.

The garden has been completely reimagined, with a plunge pool and plantings selected with advice from the London landscape designer Luciano Giubbilei. A terrace connected to the largest bedroom overlooks the garden, while a smaller balcony off the front bedroom offers views of the nearby Gothic bell tower commissioned by the medieval nobleman Raimondo Orsini del Balzo. “It rings at 6:30 every morning, and on Sundays it’s not just a simple bong-bong-bong,” Mr. Trotter said. “It keeps going, every 20 minutes.”

Completed in July, the renovation of Casa Soleto took two years, and there’s nothing else like it in town. “The mayor and the priest came to see the house,” Mr. Trotter said. “Italians like to make everything new and perfect, and we’ve done it in a way that it still feels old, so I think they don’t get it.” But for him and Mr. Martinez, he added, “true luxury is not about being in super-polished perfection.”

Identifying Victims in South African Fire is a Grim Struggle

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Families of the victims of a fire in downtown Johannesburg were still searching for relatives at mortuaries and hospitals on Friday to see if they had lived or died, a day after the blaze tore through a overcrowded building in one of the deadliest residential fires in South African history.

The fire, which broke out in the early hours of Thursday, consumed a five-story building that was an illegal home for hundreds of families and which has become a grisly symbol of official failure to address a dire housing crisis in Johannesburg.

At least 74 people died in the fire, a dozen of them children, with some victims jumping to their deaths from the building and others trapped inside. Officials said that some of the victims were so badly burned that it was hard to identify their bodies. Rescue workers were still searching on Thursday evening to recover victims from the building. On Friday morning, police were seen taking search dogs around the charred site.

Relatives of people caught in the blaze have been visiting hospitals where officials said more than 60 people were being treated, hoping to find family members alive.

Others gathered outside government mortuaries early on Friday, after health officials urged them to come forward to try identify some of the dead.

“All I want to see today, is to see the body,” one man who believed his brother had died in the fire told SABC News as he waited outside a Johannesburg mortuary on Friday morning. “I hear, yes, but I need to see. But right now we are still in the dark,” he added.

“This is the type of death that we never wish on anyone,” President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Thursday evening at the scene of the blaze. Assistance would be given to survivors who lost their homes, many of whom were in a state of shock and injury, he said.

He called the tragedy a “wake-up call,” underlining the urgency of dealing with the chronic housing situation that afflicts poor parts of Johannesburg in particular. The city’s officials needed to find solutions to the challenge of housing in one of South Africa’s most populous cities, he said. He called it “a difficult lesson.”

The cause of the blaze remained unclear on Friday morning and officials said they were setting up an investigation, which may take some time.

Preliminary evidence suggested that the fire started on the ground floor of the building, a local official said, and a security gate may have trapped many residents as they tried to flee. Some of the earliest flames, according to imagery of the fire, were spotted in the building’s courtyard but the exact origin of the blaze was unknown.

Rights groups and residents said they have long feared such a tragedy in a city where hundreds derelict structures are illegally occupied and thousands of residents live in dangerous conditions.

The buildings often do not have access to running water, electricity and working bathrooms, or safety features like fire escapes, extinguishers and sprinklers. That has prompted residents to light open fires for light, cooking and warmth.

The building that burned on Thursday is owned by the city. Formerly used for controlling the movement of Black workers during the apartheid era, in recent years the building had been leased to a nonprofit group that offered women and children emergency shelter. But it was then abandoned, residents said, and became a warren of subdivided dwellings in which hundreds of people had sheltered.

In October 2019, the authorities raided the building and arrested 140 people in an illegal rent scheme, said Floyd Brink, the city manager of Johannesburg, but the case was closed in 2022 for lack of evidence.

Racehorse Deaths in Saratoga Renew Old Worries and Prompt Reforms

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It has become an all-too-common scenario: a thoroughbred suffers a ghastly injury before a packed grandstand and a national television audience and has to be euthanized by injection on the track. This past Saturday at Saratoga Race Course, an undefeated colt named New York Thunder was just strides from winning a $500,000 stakes race when he stumbled and unseated his rider.

The jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, got up. New York Thunder had to be put down after shattering his left front fetlock.

It was the 12th horse fatality — the eighth while racing — at the Saratoga summer meet. Combined with the deaths of a dozen horses last spring at Churchill Downs, including two on Kentucky Derby day, the fatalities have brought renewed scrutiny of horse racing and again left owners, trainers and racetrack executives struggling to reassure the public that racing is safe for its human and equine athletes.

In the wake of the deaths, New York racing officials have vowed to spend millions on PET and CT scans and outfit horses with sensors in the hopes of diagnosing pre-existing injuries before they become fatal. And a synthetic racing surface, which equine injury data shows to be significantly safer than dirt and turf tracks, is being installed for winter racing at Belmont Park and is being considered for both Aqueduct and Saratoga.

“We can strive for zero fatalities and part of that is aggressive imaging, synthetic surfaces and sensor tracking,” said David O’Rourke, the chief executive officer and president of the New York Racing Association. The association is in the process of acquiring the diagnostic equipment and hopes to have it in place soon.

Also, the director of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, which oversees racing safety nationwide, said the authority will soon implement a rule lengthening the time horses must wait to race after they have received a steroid injection. Steroids can mask pain and may cause horses to run hard even when they are hurt.

In recent years, racehorse deaths have deepened the sense of crisis in an industry that is dwindling in popularity as racing fans turn to other sports and forms of gambling.

In 2019, 30 horses died at Santa Anita Park in California in a span of six months, creating national headlines and drawing the scrutiny of state lawmakers and animal rights activists. In response, state regulators and racing officials strengthened rules regarding the use of riding crops, medications for horses, education for trainers and jockeys, track safety and recuperation policies for injured horses.

The reforms appeared to be effective. Last year, 12 horses died at Santa Anita. Thoroughbred fatalities throughout California fell 54 percent from 2019 to 2022.

Dr. Scott Palmer, New York’s equine medical director, said the number of fatalities had been declining in New York as well.

Nationally, since 2009, the Jockey Club has kept a database to track fatal breakdowns on American racetracks and analyze how they can be prevented. That first year, thoroughbreds had fatal injuries at the rate of two per 1,000 starts.

The rate of fatal injuries has declined every year for the last four years. In 2022, the rate was 1.25 deaths per 1,000 starts.

But the high-profile breakdowns at big races have occurred when casual fans are tuned in and, ultimately, turned off. While 12 horses died at Saratoga the previous two years, a majority of the deaths occurred during training hours. This year, eight horses have died while racing.

“The Kentucky Derby teed this up,” Palmer said, referring to the repeated and highly publicized deaths at Churchill Downs in May. The pattern continued at the Preakness Stakes in Baltimore, where Havnameltdown — trained by Bob Baffert, the most recognizable figure in the sport — broke down in a race preceding the second leg of the Triple Crown.

“It’s been awful,” Palmer said.

New York Thunder, the horse that broke down in front of the Saratoga crowd, was brilliantly fast but prone to injury, according to his veterinary records obtained by The New York Times.

The horse’s trainer, Jorge Delgado, declined to comment on his handling of the colt, the third of his horses to die since July 27. The colt’s London-based owner, Kia Joorabchian, could not be reached for comment.

After winning his first two races last year as a 2-year-old, first on a synthetic surface and then on turf, New York Thunder had a slow start to his 3-year-old season. He spent two weeks in the spring on the Kentucky vet’s list described as “lame,” according to vet records, making him ineligible to compete. Horses are put on the vet’s list when they are deemed unsound by regulatory veterinarians or have undergone certain procedures that require extra time or scrutiny.

He returned to racing on April 30 at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto, easily winning a stakes race on a synthetic surface.

In June, Delgado entered New York Thunder in the Woody Stephens Stakes on the undercard of the Belmont Stakes. But the horse was scratched by state veterinarians the morning of the race because he was injured, according to the vet records. No other information was given in the records.

On July 14, New York Thunder went on the vet’s list again for two weeks after he was given a joint injection, the records say. The injection was allowed under rules set by the national horse racing authority, which was created by Congress 2020 to oversee the sport. It is common for trainers to inject horses with steroids to battle inflammation and reduce pain.

On July 28, the colt came off the vet’s list and won the Amsterdam Stakes on dirt in Saratoga by an eye-catching seven and a half lengths.

Racing a horse two weeks after it has received an injection is allowable under the rules but controversial in the sport. Before the national racing authority took over antidoping and medication control on May 22, California had a rule that prohibited steroid fetlock injections within 30 days of a race.

Before the rule went into effect, the state had 83 catastrophic fetlock failures in 20 months. Afterward, it had 24 in the next 19 months.

Dr. Greg Ferraro, the chairman of the California Horse Racing Board, said the use of medications too close to a race limits the ability of regulatory veterinarians to identify pre-existing conditions that may progress to catastrophic injuries.

“Fourteen days is a step backward,” said Ferraro, a former racetrack veterinarian. “If you put any athlete in significant training, the health of joint disintegrates, you can’t slow it down, but you can speed it up by putting corticosteroid in the fetlock. You inject to run. That culture needs to be eliminated.”

The culture still existed when New York Thunder was racing this summer. On Aug. 12, two weeks before the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes in Saratoga, he again received a joint injection.

On the day of the Jerkens Memorial, the colt bounced out of the gate and led every step of the seven-furlong sprint. He was gliding like a swamp buggy, five lengths ahead, as the finish line approached. There were more than 48,000 people at the racetrack for the 154th running of the Travers Stakes, or “Midsummer Derby,” later that day.

A full-throated roar powered New York Thunder down the stretch.

And then the colt seemed to come apart, crumpling to the ground and tossing Gaffalione. Gasps and groans turned to silence. The horse ambulance arrived; a screen was raised. Tear-streaked faces in droves headed for the exits.

It seemed a cruel replay of the scene three weeks earlier, on another big day with a national broadcast audience, when a filly named Maple Leaf Mel fatally broke down just yards from the finish line.

Lisa Lazarus, the chief executive of the national authority, acknowledged that the rule in place and the process for determining a horse’s soundness failed New York Thunder.

“There’s two ways to look at a horse — on paper and through his vet records and past performances and in person on the day of the race,” Lazarus said. “The regulatory vet can only act on what they see on the day and in the moment.”

In the final days of the Saratoga meeting, which ends Monday, a veterinarian from Lazarus’s staff is examining the records of horses entered in every race. Lazarus anticipates that the authority, along with state racing associations, will create a review panel to daily determine the fitness of horses entered to run that day, much like the model that California employs.

Lazarus said the authority would adopt the California rule of banning steroid fetlock injections within 30 days of a race.

Changes in racetracks are also likely to help. Horses break down 0.41 times per 1,000 starts on synthetics compared with 0.99 times on turf and 1.44 times on dirt, according to the Jockey Club’s database.

Mark Casse, a Hall of Fame trainer in the United States and Canada, said he has trained or raced horses at least 150,000 times on Woodbine’s synthetic racetrack over the past decade. He said synthetic tracks are more consistent and have more give, especially in inclement weather.

“It’s been safer year after year after year,” Casse said. “What happens on dirt is that the preferred way to win is to train for speed and get to the front. Getting dirt kicked in their faces discourages horses. On synthetic, it’s not as fast as you can, it’s more tactical. Speed on hard dirt kills.”

Santa Anita and Del Mar in California and Keeneland in Kentucky experimented with synthetic tracks more than a decade ago. Breakdown rates fell significantly, but complaints from trainers and breeders skyrocketed. Trainers said they saw more soft tissue and hind injuries. Breeders were afraid horses that performed well on synthetics might not transfer that quality to dirt, diminishing the value of their stallions.

“We, as an industry, do not like to change,” Casse said. “But if we continue to cling to tradition, we will be out of business.”

With the amount of scrutiny on horse racing, however, Casse believes the sport is at a crossroads and without change will go out of business.

“We have to be better,” Casse said. “I’m not sure that I’m as proud to be a horse trainer as I used to be.”

Elon Musk met then-Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal for a secret dinner in 2022 and said Agrawal was not the ‘fire-breathing dragon’ the platform needed

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Elon Musk and Parag Agrawal
Elon Musk and Parag Agrawal.Getty/ Chesnot/ Kevin Dietsch
  • Elon Musk and then-Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal got dinner together in March 2022.
  • Musk came away from the meeting describing Agrawal as a nice guy, but not the “fire-breathing dragon” Twitter needed.
  • That’s according to an excerpt published in The Wall Street Journal from Walter Isaacson’s forthcoming biography of Musk.

Elon Musk and Parag Agrawal, then the CEO of Twitter, got dinner together in March 2022, and Musk emerged from the meeting thinking Agrawal was missing at least one key quality in a leader.

Walter Isaacson, a writer who spent three years trailing the Tesla CEO, detailed the aftermath of the encounter in his forthcoming biography, “Elon Musk.” The book is set to be published on September 12. The Wall Street Journal ran an excerpt of the biography on August 31.

After the meeting, Musk said Agrawal was a “really nice guy.” But, in Musk’s opinion, being a CEO doesn’t require being liked, Isaacson wrote.

“What Twitter needs is a fire-breathing dragon,” Musk said after that meeting, per Isaacson. “And Parag is not that.”

The context for the meeting — which predates Musk’s $44 billion deal to acquire Twitter and which Isaacson says was held over a secret dinner alongside Twitter’s board chair at the time, Bret Taylor — is important.

Just prior, it had become public knowledge that Musk was buying up stock in the platform still known as Twitter. By spring 2022, Musk had become Twitter’s biggest shareholder.

While this is Isaacson’s retelling of Musk’s version of events, another record of the pair’s dinner exits.

Messages between Musk and Agrawal were released in September 2022 as part of a lawsuit Twitter filed against Musk in July 2022. The messages showed that at least outwardly, the pair seemed cordial after that meeting.

“Hey Elon – great to be connected directly. Would love to chat,” Agrawal wrote in a message to Musk on March 27, 2022.

“Great dinner :),” Musk responded.

“Memorable for multiple reasons,” Agrawal texted. “Really enjoyed it.”

Soon after the dinner, Agrawal announced that Musk was joining Twitter’s board.

But the cracks appeared soon after. In April, Musk fired off a tweet asking “Is Twitter dying?”

Agrawal and Musk then sparred over messages, with Musk writing: “I’m not joining the board. This is a waste of time. Will make an offer to take Twitter private.” Isaacson, too, recounts a similar version of events.

In April, Musk offered to buy Twitter for $54.20 a share in cash while saying he wasn’t confident about Twitter’s management — including Agrawal.

The two also clashed over how many bots were on the social media platform.

A deal was finally agreed upon to take Twitter private in October. One of the first things Musk did was to fire Agrawal.

In April Agrawal, Twitter’s ex-chief financial officer Ned Segal, and Vijaya Gadde, the former legal chief, sued Twitter for $1 million in unpaid bills.

In July, Musk rebranded Twitter to X and said he wanted to “bid adieu” to “all the birds,” referring to Twitter’s logo.

Agrawal did not immediately respond to Insider’s request for comment sent outside regular business hours.

Read the full excerpt from Isaacson’s book on The Wall Street Journal’s website.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Gabon’s Leader, Ali Bongo Ondimba, Was More Admired Abroad Than at Home

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As the all-powerful ruler of oil-rich Gabon, Ali Bongo Ondimba had two passions, music and forests, that forged powerful ties across the world.

An accomplished musician, Mr. Bongo recorded a disco-funk album and lured James Brown and Michael Jackson to Gabon. As president, he built a music studio at his seaside palace and played improv jazz to foreign diplomats at state dinners.

More recently, Mr. Bongo allied with Western scientists and conservationists, entranced by both the paradisiacal beauty of Gabon, an Arizona-sized country covered in lush rainforest and teeming with wildlife, and by his commitment to protecting it.

But to his own people, Mr. Bongo, 64, embodied a family dynasty, founded by his father, which had dominated Gabon for 56 years — until this week, when it came crashing down.

Military officers seized power on Wednesday, hours after election officials declared Mr. Bongo the winner of a disputed election last weekend. Few saw it coming, not least the president. When his own guards came for him, Mr. Bongo seemed genuinely bewildered.

“I don’t know what’s going on,” Mr. Bongo, speaking from his home, said in a video that was authenticated and circulated by some of his many Western advisers. “I’m calling on you to make noise.”

It was the latest in a blaze of military takeovers of African countries, toppling weak governments. (“Déjà coup,” said one analyst from Sudan, which had its own coup in 2021.) But while other takeovers were prompted by violent upheaval, in peaceful Gabon it was something else: A sign that the Bongo rule, which held fast for a half-century, had run its course.

There was no sign of Mr. Bongo on Thursday, a day after his plaintive cry for help. The coup leader Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema — a cousin of Mr. Bongo — announced he would be sworn in as “transitional president” next Monday.

Other African leaders, fearing they might be next, took precautions. In neighboring Cameroon, President Paul Biya — in office for 40 years and, at age 90, the world’s oldest serving leader — announced a sudden reshuffle of his country’s military leadership. So, too, did Rwanda, which like Gabon has for decades been ruled by one man.

As Mr. Bongo’s fate hung in the balance, reactions differed. Foreign conservationists expressed worries about what comes next for a country that worked so hard to preserve its pristine forests and seas. Recently, Gabon negotiated a landmark $500 million debt refinancing deal that freed $163 million for marine protection.

“A power vacuum could lead to a free-for-all where poaching, illegal logging and deforestation increase,” said Simon Lewis, a professor of global change science at University College London, who has advised Gabon on climate policy. “The prospect of the Gabonese people gaining major income from their forests could evaporate.”

In Libreville, Gabon’s crowded seaside capital, the verdict was more mixed. “I am free!” cried Alaphine, a young woman in a crowd of coup supporters who declined to give a surname. But Christopher Ngondjet, a 25-year-old law student, said he felt torn.

He welcomed a change from the Bongos, he said, but worried about military rule. “The president did a lot of good things, especially with the environment,” he said. “I don’t know if the generals will have the same interest.”

In many ways, Gabon has more in common with some Persian Gulf states than with its African neighbors. It has a tiny population of 2.3 million people, huge oil wealth and a country that is sparsely inhabited; 88 percent of the land is forest and roads are few.

As oil prices soared in the last quarter of the 20th century, the Bongo family reigned like an undeclared monarchy. President Omar Bongo took power in 1967 and became a close ally of France, Gabon’s former colonial ruler. By most estimates, he fathered at least 53 children with different women, a means of cementing political alliances.

After Omar Bongo died in 2009, the torch passed to Ali, one of his seven “official” sons, who won the presidential election that year.

The Bongos loved the baubles of super wealth — the Bentleys, the Parisian villas, the vacations on the Côte d’Azur. Ali Bongo frequently rode around Libreville in a Rolls-Royce and socialized with King Mohammed of Morocco, an old friend who has a private palace in Gabon.

French investigators accused Mr. Bongo and his family of corruption. But what distinguished their country from nearby oil-rich kleptocracies, like Equatorial Guinea, was that some wealth also flowed down.

Education and health care levels are significantly higher in Gabon than elsewhere in the region. Gifted students are sent to France on government scholarships. Its timber industry provides 30,000 jobs, largely thanks to Mr. Bongo’s insistence that value be added in Gabon, not abroad.

With its orderly markets and palm-lined corniche, Libreville lacks the constant chaos of neighboring capitals. The U.S. Agency for International Development classifies Gabon as a middle-income country.

Certainly, poverty is rife: a report by McKinsey in 2013 estimated that 30 percent of Gabonese lived on $140 a month. Yet even in the poorest parts of Libreville living conditions are better than in much of the region.

Mr. Bongo’s kitchen cabinet is filled with Western advisers who stroll through government offices and in one case was appointed a minister: Lee White, a British-born scientist, who since 2019 has been minister of water, forests, the sea and environment.

About 15 years ago, Mr. Bongo began focusing on the country’s forests — home to western lowland gorillas, forest elephants, chimps and mandrills, and part of the Congo Basin, one of the world’s most important carbon sinks.

Omar Bongo, created 13 national parks covering 10 percent of Gabon’s landmass, and Ali Bongo continued that passion. He flew by helicopter to his private reserve, where he kept lions, tigers, cheetahs, cougars and leopards.

He became a regular at international climate conferences, and courted powerful, wealthy allies. Last year King Charles, who has praised Mr. Bongo’s policies, welcomed him to Buckingham Palace. On a visit to Gabon, Jeff Bezos, the Amazon founder, pledged $35 million for forest preservation.

Mr. Bongo’s advocacy was partly driven by self-interest. It burnished his foreign image and opened doors to a potential fortune in carbon credits — billions of dollars that Mr. Bongo has urged the West to pay Gabon to help preserve its rainforests.

But foreign officials who met Mr. Bongo said his soft-spoken, genteel manner could vanish as he enthused about nature. In a 2016 interview with the Times, Mr. Bongo reminisced about growing up with a pet Siberian tiger and gushed over his current pets in the presidential reserve. “There are so many,” he said, ticking off the names of some of his lions, Goliath and Greta, and a cheetah called Sahara.

But Mr. Bongo’s system began to show cracks. After the financial crash of 2008, a fall in oil prices hit Gabon hard. As the economy slumped, inequality grew more pronounced.

The fleets of Mercedes and Rolls-Royce cars that rolled through the small streets of the capital, parking at fancy seafood restaurants or outside the president’s palace, began to jar more than usual.

In forest communities, farmers complained that growing numbers of hungry elephants — a direct result of Mr. Bongo’s anti-poaching efforts — were eating their crops. Despite oil revenues, they complained, passable roads barely existed outside the capital. “Let the elephants vote for him,” was a slogan of critics during the 2016 election.

In that vote, Mr. Bongo bared his knuckles to stay in power. In his strongholds, voter turnout was an improbable 99 percent. Security forces encircled the opposition party headquarters and at least one person was killed.

Daniel Mengara, founder of the exiled opposition group Bongo Must Go, said oil revenues did help Gabon’s people, but the Bongos skimmed off too much. “We deserve better than what we’ve got and what we’ve got is misery,” he said.

In 2019 Mr. Bongo suffered a stroke and disappeared for 10 months, re-emerging with a cane. His relationship with France faltered: He welcomed Chinese and other investment, and last year Gabon joined the British Commonwealth.

Since 2020, a series of coups has shaken West Africa: first in Mali, then Burkina Faso, Guinea, Sudan and, last month, Niger. Despite threats and sanctions from African and Western powers, none was reversed.

President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria warned of a “contagion of autocracy,” with emboldened soldiers in other countries deciding they should take over, too.

Few imagined Mr. Bongo was in immediate danger. But then he pushed ahead with a contentious election, and the coup makers, led by his own cousin, brought contagion to his door.

Declan Walsh reported from Nairobi, Kenya, and Dionne Searcey from New York. Yann Leyimangoye contributed reporting from Libreville, Gabon.

Humanity’s Ancestors Nearly Died Out, Genetic Study Suggests

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No place on the planet has escaped the influence of Homo sapiens, from the rainforests cleared for farms to microplastic-laced deep oceans to climate-altered jet streams. Last November, the world population reached 8 billion.

But as omnipresent as humans may be today, a team of scientists now claims that our species came very close to never appearing at all.

Researchers in China have found evidence suggesting that 930,000 years ago, the ancestors of modern humans suffered a massive population crash. They point to a drastic change to the climate that occurred around that time as the cause.

Our ancestors remained at low numbers — fewer than 1,280 breeding individuals — during a period known as a bottleneck. It lasted for over 100,000 years before the population rebounded.

“About 98.7 percent of human ancestors were lost at the beginning of the bottleneck, thus threatening our ancestors with extinction,” the scientists wrote. Their study was published on Thursday in the journal Science.

If the research holds up, it will have provocative implications. It raises the possibility that a climate-driven bottleneck helped split early humans into two evolutionary lineages — one that eventually gave rise to Neanderthals, the other to modern humans.

But outside experts said they were skeptical of the novel statistical methods that the researchers used for the study. “It is a bit like inferring the size of a stone that falls into the middle of the large lake from only the ripples that arrive at the shore some minutes later,” said Stephan Schiffels, a population geneticist at Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany.

For decades now, scientists have reconstructed the history of our species by analyzing the genes of living people. The studies all take advantage of the same basic facts of our biology: every baby is born with dozens of new genetic mutations, and some of those mutations can be handed down over thousands or even millions of years.

By comparing genetic variations in DNA, scientists can trace people’s ancestry to ancient populations that lived in different parts of the world, moved around and interbred. They can even infer the size of those populations at different times in history.

These studies have gotten more sophisticated as DNA sequencing technology has grown more powerful. Today, scientists can compare the entire genomes of people from different populations.

Every human genome contains over 3 billion genetic letters of DNA, each of which has been passed down for thousands or millions of years — creating a vast record of our history. To read that history, researchers now use increasingly powerful computers that can carry out the vast numbers of calculations required for more realistic models of human evolution.

Haipeng Li, an evolutionary genomics researcher at Chinese Academy of Sciences in Shanghai, and his colleagues spent over a decade creating their own method for reconstructing evolution.

The researchers named the method FitCoal (short for Fast Infinitesimal Time Coalescent). FitCoal lets scientists cut up history into fine slices of time, allowing them to create a model of a million years of evolution divided into periods of months.

“It is a tool we created to figure out the history of different groups of living things, from humans to plants,” Dr. Li said.

At first he and his colleagues focused on animals like fruit flies. But once enough genetic data from our own species had been sequenced, they turned to the history of humans, comparing the genomes of 3,154 people from 50 populations around the world.

The researchers explored various models in order to find one that best explains today’s genetic diversity among humans. They ended up with a scenario that included a near-extinction event among our ancestors 930,000 years ago.

“We realized we had discovered something big about human history,” said Wangjie Hu, a computational biologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York and an author of the study.

Before the bottleneck, the scientists concluded, the population of our ancestors included about 98,000 breeding individuals. It then shrank to fewer than 1,280 and stayed that small for 117,000 years. Then the population rebounded.

Dr. Hu and his colleagues argue in their paper that this bottleneck is consistent with the fossil record of our human ancestors.

Our branch of the evolutionary tree split from that of other apes about seven million years ago in Africa. Our ancestors had evolved to be tall and big-brained in Africa by about a million years ago. Afterward, some of those early humans spread out to Europe and Asia, evolving into Neanderthals and their cousins, the Denisovans.

Our own lineage continued to evolve into modern humans in Africa.

After decades of fossil hunting, the record of ancient human relatives remains relatively scarce in Africa in the period between 950,000 and 650,000 years ago. The new study offers a potential explanation: there just weren’t enough people to leave behind many remains, Dr. Hu said.

Brenna Henn, a geneticist at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in the new study, said that a bottleneck was “one plausible interpretation.” But today’s genetic diversity might have been produced by a different evolutionary history, she added.

For example, humans might have diverged into separate populations then come together again. “It would be more powerful to test alternative models,” Dr. Henn said.

Dr. Hu and his colleagues propose that a global climate shift produced the population crash 930,000 years ago. They point to geological evidence that the planet became colder and drier right around the time of their proposed bottleneck. Those conditions may have made it harder for our human ancestors to find food.

But Nick Ashton, an archaeologist at the British Museum, noted that a number of remains of ancient human relatives dating to the time of the bottleneck have been found outside Africa.

If a worldwide disaster caused the human population in Africa to collapse, he said, then it should have made human relatives rarer elsewhere in the world.

“The number of sites in Africa and Eurasia that date to this period suggests that it only affected a limited population, who may have been ancestors of modern humans,” he said.

Dr. Li and his colleagues also drew attention to the fact that modern humans appear to have split from Neanderthals and Denisovans after their proposed population crash. They speculate that the two events are related.

The researchers noted that most apes have 24 pairs of chromosomes. Humans have only 23, thanks to the fusion of two sets. After the crash, the scientists suggest, a fused set of chromosomes may have arisen and spread through the tiny population.

“All humans with 24 pairs of chromosomes became extinct, while only the small isolated population with 23 pairs of chromosomes fortunately survived and passed down from generation to generation,” said Ziqian Hao, a bioinformatics researcher at Shandong First Medical University and an author of the study.

But Dr. Schiffels isn’t buying the story of the bottleneck quite yet: “The finding is very surprising indeed, and I think the more surprising the claim, the better the evidence should be.”