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What are coin mixers, and how are they used in high-profile hacks?

Crypto mixers, or tumblers, are basically smart contracts used to hide the origin of crypto transactions. Hackers send their cryptocurrency to a mixer’s address. The mixer blends the crypto with coins sent by other users, thereby concealing the identity of each contributor. Subsequently, the mixer redistributes the coins, effectively obscuring their original source.

For example, if 10 users each mix 1 Ether (ETH), they each contribute and receive different ETH. The mixers’ ability to conceal funds has a dual nature: Hackers use them to hide stolen funds, while others enhance financial privacy, protecting against surveillance. Despite their controversial use, mixers remain a tool for those seeking greater crypto anonymity

Hackers frequently combine crypto mixing with other laundering techniques such as decentralized exchange (DEX) trading, peel chains and crypto bridging. DEX trading involves directly exchanging cryptocurrencies between users on a DEX, eliminating the need for a central authority. A peel chain is a type of multi-wallet transfer where the hackers send increasingly smaller amounts across each hop instead of large amounts.

Functioning of coin mixers

In a brazen display of their sophisticated laundering capabilities, North Korea’s Lazarus Group executed a complex operation involving the theft and subsequent obfuscation of $1.46 billion in cryptocurrency mere days following the high-profile Bybit hack

Using coin mixers and the decentralized crosschain protocol THORChain, North Korea’s Lazarus Group laundered the stolen funds just days after the hack. 

This incident is not an isolated case. In 2024 alone, Pyongyang-based hackers have reportedly stolen $800 million in crypto. The stolen funds were rapidly funneled through crypto mixers, intermediary wallets, DEXs and crosschain bridges using advanced laundering tactics.

North Korean hackers have been responsible for over $5 billion in stolen crypto since 2017, utilizing platforms like Ren Bridge and Avalanche Bridge, often converting funds into Bitcoin (BTC) before employing mixers such as Tornado Cash, Sinbad, YoMix, Wasabi Wallet and CryptoMixer​. 

Notable crypto hacks by Lazarus Group include WazirX (July 2024), State.com (September 2023), CoinsPaid and Alphapo (July 2023), Harmony Horizon Bridge (June 2022) and Ronin Bridge (March 2022), among others.

Notable crypto heists by the Lazarus group

Did you know? Fraudulent organizations like the Lazarus Group are suspected of running private mixers. Attributing wallets to these mixers requires careful consideration, as it carries a significant risk of wrongly identifying individuals who use them for legitimate privacy or are otherwise uninvolved.

What are crosschain bridges, and why do hackers use them to launder stolen funds?

Hackers leverage crosschain bridges to facilitate verifiable data transfers across networks, thereby enabling interoperability, often without reliance on a centralized intermediary. Through the lock-mint methodology, these crypto bridges secure the original token in a smart contract and subsequently mint a corresponding wrapped version on the target blockchain.

For instance, when transferring an asset from Ethereum to Solana, the asset is first sent to a bridge contract on Ethereum, where it is “locked.” The bridge then notifies Solana, which creates a “wrapped” version of the asset, allowing it to function on the Solana network as a native coin.

To reverse the process, the wrapped asset is “burned” on Solana. The bridge then notifies the Ethereum blockchain to unlock the original asset, maintaining supply balance across both chains.

Hackers exploit vulnerabilities within these bridge transactions. They identify weaknesses that allow the creation of wrapped assets on the target chain without the corresponding locking of original assets on the source chain. 

They can also manipulate the system to unlock original assets without the required burning of wrapped versions. This allows for the theft of funds without a legitimate deposit. Here’s how it works:

  • False deposit events: A common tactic hackers use is triggering false deposit events. Crypto bridges typically monitor blockchains for deposit confirmations before issuing corresponding tokens on another chain. Hackers trick the system by creating fake deposit events or using worthless tokens. An example of such an attack is the Qubit hack, where the hackers created false deposit events using a legacy function in the code.
  • Validator takeover: Another method is validator takeover, which targets bridges relying on validator consensus for transaction approval. If hackers gain control of most validators, they can authorize malicious transfers. In the Ronin Network hack, attackers seized five out of nine validators, enabling them to move funds undetected.
  • Fake deposits: Hackers can exploit vulnerabilities in deposit validation mechanisms. If they can forge a deposit through the validation process, they can withdraw funds fraudulently. A $320-million loss in the Wormhole attack resulted from a digital signature validation process flaw.

Monthly transaction volume bridged across chains between Jan. 2021 and Oct. 2024

Did you know? Often, crypto bridges are susceptible to attacks because of inadequate engineering. In the Harmony Horizon Bridge hack, the ease with which hackers compromised two out of five validator accounts, gaining access to funds, highlights this vulnerability.

Hackers’ playbook: Typical process of laundering stolen funds

Hackers use crypto bridges to hide the origin of funds, thereby increasing anonymity. The hackers use crypto bridges for money laundering in three key stages: placement, layering and integration. 

Here is a brief description of how crypto hackers launder stolen funds:

  • Placement: In the placement stage, the criminals introduce illicit funds into the financial system. They break large amounts into smaller transactions to avoid detection. Then they use these funds to purchase cryptocurrencies, more often through intermediaries, making it harder for law enforcement to trace their origins.
  • Layering: Hackers move funds across multiple transactions to obscure their source. Some exchanges enforce strict Anti-Money Laundering (AML) measures, while others operate with little oversight. Hackers take advantage of the latter, using decentralized or loosely regulated platforms to move funds across chains.
  • Integration: In this stage, criminals reintroduce laundered funds into the legitimate economy. By this time, the crypto has been cycled through various platforms and is no longer directly tied to criminal activity. Criminals may cash out through fiat off-ramps, use it for seemingly legal transactions, or reinvest in assets like real estate

Did you know? The inherent lack of interoperability between blockchains creates fragmented data, making it difficult to monitor crosschain activity. This lack of shared information hinders comprehensive activity tracking.

How did the Lazarus Group launder stolen crypto from Bybit?

Lazarus combined classic money-laundering tricks with modern DeFi and crosschain swaps, making this one of the most complex laundering cases in crypto history. Investigators have managed to freeze over $42 million, but the majority of the funds have already been hidden or converted into fiat via underground channels.

Total amount stolen and asset breakdown

Bybit’s losses in the hack totaled roughly $1.46 billion. The stolen assets were primarily Ether and Ethereum-based tokens, including:

  • 401,347 Ether (ETH): worth approx. $1.12 billion​
  • 90,376 Lido Staked Ether (stETH): worth ~$253 million
  • 15,000 cmETH (a form of staked/pooled ETH): worth ~$44 million
  • 8,000 mETH (another wrapped ETH derivative): worth ~$23 million​

In total, about 401,000 Ether (ETH) and 90,000 Lido Staked Ether (stETH) (plus smaller ETH-derivative tokens) were taken, which the hackers immediately consolidated and converted. According to Nansen’s analysis, the attackers swapped all non-ETH tokens (stETH, cmETH, mETH) into plain ETH soon after the breach​. This gave the hackers full control over ETH, a native asset that cannot be easily frozen by any central issuer​. The entire loot was then funneled into the attackers’ wallets for laundering.

Laundering methods used

Lazarus Group used a multi-layered strategy to hide and cash out the $1.46 billion stolen from Bybit. Their methods included:

  • Splitting and dispersing funds: Right after the hack, they split 401,000 ETH into 50 wallets to make tracking harder. This tactic of spreading out funds (roughly $27 million per wallet) is designed to complicate tracking by diluting the honeypot. Over the next day, those 50 wallets were systematically emptied as Lazarus began moving the ETH into further layers of addresses and services.
  • Swapping tokens via DEXs: They converted stETH, cmETH and mETH into ETH using DEXs (likely using platforms like Uniswap or Curve).
  • Crosschain bridges: They used Chainflip and THORChain to swap ETH into BTC and move funds across chains. Approximately 361,000 ETH (over $900 million) was converted into BTC and distributed across 6,954 Bitcoin addresses (averaging ~1.7 BTC per address) to further break the trail.
  • Mixers and no-KYC exchanges: They used Tornado Cash alternatives, non-Know Your Customer (KYC) swap services like eXch, and onchain coin swaps to obscure transactions. Elliptic identified eXch as a “major and willing facilitator” in this laundering operation: Over $75 million in Bybit hack proceeds were swapped through eXch within days​. Because eXch lets users convert ETH into other cryptocurrencies, like BTC or even privacy coins such as Monero (XMR), with no traceable linkage, any funds passing through it often go dark.
  • DeFi platforms and DEX launchpads: The Pump.fun launchpad/DEX on Solana became unintentionally involved in a money-laundering operation when hackers used it to launch the QinShihuang token. The platform’s lack of preventive filters allowed hackers to create tokens and pair them with liquidity. This creative technique effectively “mixed” $26 million without using a traditional mixer. Once the scheme was discovered, Pump.fun’s developers swiftly intervened, blocking the token on their front-end UI to halt further trades. While other DeFi platforms like Uniswap and PancakeSwap also facilitated the token swaps, they weren’t complicit in the laundering.
  • OTC and P2P networks: While not explicitly named in public reports, it’s strongly suspected that unregulated over-the-counter (OTC) brokers and peer-to-peer (P2P) trading networks were involved in the final conversion of these stolen funds to cash. Lazarus has historically relied on Chinese and Russian OTC desks to convert crypto to fiat (for example, selling BTC for Chinese yuan in cash)​.

Did you know? Of the stolen crypto, exchanges have frozen $42.8 million worth of funds, but the North Korean threat actor has laundered all of the stolen 499,395 ETH, primarily through THORChain.

How do investigators uncover crosschain crypto fraud?

To address crosschain fraud involving coin mixing, investigators follow a holistic approach and use specialized tools to track illicit transactions. This is different from legacy explorers that only focus on single-chain analytics. 

The following example will help you understand how crosschain crypto fraud tools help investigators. Suppose a spyware group extorts funds in Bitcoin and moves them to Ethereum via a crosschain bridge. Instead of cashing out, they swap the funds for a privacy coin using a DEX. Traditional tools require law enforcement to track each step manually, causing delays and errors. 

With automated crosschain tracking, investigators can trace transactions in one interface, identify the DEX used, and contact exchanges quickly. This accelerates investigations and improves the chances of recovering stolen assets. 

Notable features of such crosschain investigative tools, such as those offered by Elliptic and Chainalysis:

  • Crosschain hopping detection: It flags instances where criminals transfer funds between blockchains to evade detection. By mapping these transactions, investigators can maintain a comprehensive view of the laundering trail.
  • Attribution and entity identification: The capability of linking addresses to known entities, such as exchanges or DeFi platforms, helps law enforcement determine where stolen funds may have been processed.
  • Automated investigation board: An automated investigation board simplifies the process by visualizing connections between multiple addresses across different chains. This enables investigators to quickly identify laundering patterns and trace the movement of illicit funds.
  • VASP directory integration: For cases where illicit funds reach centralized exchanges (CEXs), virtual asset service providers (VASPs) directory integration allows investigators to contact exchanges, request account information, or freeze assets before they are fully laundered.

Now, let’s find out how investigators attempt to catch perpetrators using such tools. Several ways they use include:

  • Blockchain analysis: Investigators meticulously trace the flow of funds across various blockchains like Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain, Arbitrum and Polygon. This involves analyzing transaction histories, identifying patterns and mapping the movement of assets through different wallets and exchanges.
  • Following the money trail: Even with the anonymity provided by mixers and crosschain transactions, investigators attempt to follow the money trail by tracing funds to CEXs where they might be converted to fiat currency. This often involves working with international law enforcement agencies to track funds across borders.
  • Crosschain bridge monitoring: Investigators monitor bridge transactions for anomalies, such as unusually large transfers or suspicious patterns. They examine the smart contract code of bridges for vulnerabilities that could be exploited by hackers.
  • Analyzing onchain and offchain data: Investigators analyze both onchain (blockchain) and offchain (layer 2s, social media, forums, dark web) data to gather intelligence about potential fraud. This can include monitoring discussions about exploits, vulnerabilities and potential scams.
  • Forensic analysis: When devices are seized from suspects, forensic teams can analyze the devices for crypto wallets, transaction history and other evidence.

Other real-world cases of crypto laundering

Here are two real-world examples of crypto laundering. The DMM hack demonstrates the use of crypto mixers for hiding the origin of funds, while the XT.com hack shows how hackers used crypto bridges for laundering funds.

DMM hack

The DMM hack in May 2024 demonstrated how hackers use several obfuscation techniques to disguise their act. In May 2024, Japanese crypto exchange DMM suffered a massive hack, losing 4,502 BTC, worth $305 million at the time. The hackers used sophisticated laundering methods, including peel chains and coin mixers, to hide the transaction trail. 

The hackers also manipulated withdrawal timing to further disrupt blockchain analysis. They deliberately delayed withdrawals to add another layer of obfuscation, hindering attempts by investigators to match deposits and withdrawals by their time stamps.

Laundering trail of the DMM hack

XT.com hack

In November 2024, crypto exchange XT.com experienced a security breach resulting in the loss of $1.7 million. Attackers initially targeted assets on the Optimism and Polygon networks, subsequently utilizing crosschain bridges to transfer the stolen funds to Ethereum. 

This tactic of moving assets across multiple blockchains exploited the complexities inherent in tracking funds across diverse networks, thereby hindering investigative efforts. Such crosschain maneuvers underscore the challenges faced by security teams in tracking and recovering illicitly obtained digital assets.

XT.com hackers used bridges to launder funds

Regulatory challenges and law enforcement efforts regarding crypto mixers

Crypto mixers, designed to obscure transaction trails, have increasingly drawn regulatory scrutiny due to their role in laundering illicit funds. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned multiple mixers linked to cybercrime and national security threats in the US. 

Blender.io became the first-ever sanctioned mixer in 2022 after laundering $20.5 million from the Axie Infinity hack. Despite its shutdown, it resurfaced as Sinbad.io, which was sanctioned within a year for facilitating money laundering in high-profile hacks, including the Atomic Wallet and Horizon Bridge breaches.

Tornado Cash, a non-custodial Ethereum-based mixer launched in 2019 by Alexey Pertsev and Roman Storm, was sanctioned by the US Treasury in 2022. However, a court overturned the sanctions in a January 2022 ruling. Pertsev was sentenced to five years and four months in prison for laundering by Dutch judges. 

The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) classifies mixers as money transmitters, requiring compliance with AML laws. The US Department of Justice has aggressively pursued offenders, notably sanctioning Tornado Cash for laundering over $7 billion. Despite such measures, the evolving nature of crypto mixers continues to challenge regulators and law enforcement agencies worldwide.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental body to deter money laundering activities, has marked mixer usage as a red flag for illicit activities. The European Banking Authority and the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre have set up rules for reporting requirements. The Joint Money Laundering Steering Group, a private body of financial sector organizations, also issues guidelines for members for the prevention of money laundering.

However, enforcement faces challenges in holding developers accountable. Legal debates persist on whether developers should be liable if they did not directly aid laundering post-sanctioning.

The future of privacy vs. security in crypto

Crypto will need to find a delicate balance between privacy and security. While technologies like zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs will enable users to transact privately without compromising the blockchain’s integrity, they must also align with stricter AML regulations to ensure compliance while maintaining user anonymity.

While privacy advocates champion financial sovereignty and protection from surveillance, security proponents emphasize the need for transparency and regulatory compliance to maintain market integrity. 

This tension is likely to be navigated through technological advancements such as ZK-proofs, differential privacy and federated learning, which offer potential solutions for enhancing privacy without compromising security. Simultaneously, governments will continue to develop regulatory frameworks that seek to strike a balance, potentially through tiered approaches that offer varying levels of privacy. 

Ultimately, the path forward requires collaboration between developers, regulators and users to create a sustainable ecosystem that safeguards individual privacy while preventing illicit activities and fostering trust.



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Transferring data from old laptop to new one

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This is a great time of year to buy a new computer, especially if it’s been several years since your last upgrade. If you do buy a new laptop, you’ll probably want to transfer all of your data from your old laptop to the new one. Roger from Findlay, Ohio, emailed us asking for help with buying a new laptop and what software he can use to affordably move his data from his old laptop to his new one. Here’s what he is asking:

“I am a retired 75-year-old living on a fixed income. I only use my laptop for emails, banking, and the occasional solitaire game. I currently have a Lenovo Ideapad 110. I need to buy a new laptop. What laptop would be a good replacement for me, keeping in mind the cost and the limited usage I would need? What is the most cost-effective way to transfer my data to the new laptop? I have received prices from $100.00 to $200.00 just for the transfer from old to new. I could use some direction that will help me move forward.”

To answer this question, I’ll explain how to buy a new laptop and transfer your data. I’ll also include links to a few affordable laptops that can handle your daily emails and web surfing. Please keep reading to see our favorite laptops and software for data transfers.

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Transferring data from old laptop to new one

A laptop and external storage devices on a desk (Kurt “CyberGuy” Knutsson)

The best laptops to buy in 2025

Laptops for everyone and at all price points

Transferring data from old laptop to new one

Images of various laptops (Kurt “CyberGuy” Knutsson)

The first thing I recommend doing is looking at Kurt’s picks for the best laptops you can buy right now. You can read the article in detail here. If you’re in search of a laptop that can handle daily tasks such as browsing and emailing, check out these options from Acer, Lenovo and Asus.

Each laptop has enough processing power to make everything feel snappy, but none are ideal for a heavy workload. If you are just looking for something to check your email with and play the occasional game of Solitaire, the Acer Aspire 3 is your most affordable option. If you want something with 2-in-1 touchscreen functionality, then I would recommend the Lenovo Yoga 9i. The ASUS Zenbook 14 is a miniature powerhouse and a great option for anyone who wants to push a lightweight, portable laptop for content creation. Be sure to check out Kurt’s picks for the best laptops for 2025.

BEST ACCESSORIES TO GET FOR YOUR LAPTOP

How to transfer data from one device to another

Using external storage devices

Transferring data from old laptop to new one

A person holding a USB flash drive (Kurt “CyberGuy” Knutsson)

There are two different ways you can use an external storage device to transfer your old data to your new computer. Here they are:

USB flash drive: Copy the files you want to transfer to a USB flash drive, then plug it into the new computer and copy the files over. Be aware that many flash drive storage spaces tend to be on the smaller side. This won’t be a problem if you are just transferring documents and emails to a new laptop, but if you have a lot of media files (photographs, videos, etc.), then you might be better suited with an external hard drive. Follow these steps:

For Windows

  • Plug the USB flash drive into an available USB port on your current computer
  • Wait for your computer to recognize the device
  • Open File Explorer on your computer
  • Locate the files you want to transfer and select them
  • Right-click on the selected files and choose Copy or use the keyboard shortcut Ctrl+C
  • Navigate to your USB flash drive in File Explorer
  • Right-click on an empty space and select Paste or use the keyboard shortcut Ctrl+V
  • Wait for the transfer to complete.
  • Safely eject the USB flash drive by right-clicking on its icon and selecting Eject
  • Plug the USB flash drive into the new computer and repeat steps 3-8 to copy files to the new device.

For Mac

  • Insert the USB flash drive into an available USB port
  • Wait for your Mac to recognize it (it should appear in Finder)
  • Open a Finder window and locate the files you want to transfer
  • Drag the selected files to the USB drive listed in the sidebar or right-click and choose Copy, then navigate to the USB drive, right-click and select Paste
  • Wait for the transfer to complete
  • Eject the USB drive by right-clicking its icon and selecting Eject before removing it

External hard drive: Similar to a USB flash drive, but with more storage capacity. External hard drives come as either portable Hard Disk Drives (HDDs) or Solid State Drives (SSDs). Portable SSDs tend to have higher capacity and are faster than HDDs, but cost more. If you need to transfer a lot of media files, in particular videos and photographs, I recommend choosing a portable SSD. Follow these steps:

For Windows 

  • Connect the external hard drive (HDD or SSD) to your current computer’s USB port
  • Wait for the computer to recognize the device
  • Open File Explorer on your computer
  • Locate the files you want to transfer and select them
  • Right-click on the selected files and choose Copy or use Ctrl+C
  • Navigate to your external hard drive in File Explorer
  • Right-click on an empty space and select Paste or use Ctrl+V
  • Wait for the transfer to complete. This may take longer for large files or numerous files
  • Safely eject the external hard drive by right-clicking on its icon and selecting Eject
  • Connect the external hard drive to the new computer and repeat steps 3-8 to copy files to the new device

For Mac

  • Connect the external hard drive (HDD or SSD) to your Mac’s USB port
  • Wait for your Mac to recognize the device (it should appear in Finder)
  • Open a Finder window on your Mac
  • Locate the files you want to transfer and select them
  • Drag the selected files to the external hard drive listed in the Finder sidebar or right-click and choose Copy, then navigate to the external drive, right-click and select Paste
  • Alternatively, use the keyboard shortcuts Command-C to copy and Command-V to paste the files
  • Wait for the transfer to complete. This may take longer for large files or numerous files
  • Safely eject the external hard drive by right-clicking its icon in Finder and selecting Eject
  • Connect the external hard drive to the new Mac and repeat steps 3-7 to copy files to the new device

BEST ANTIVIRUS FOR MAC, PC, IPHONES AND ANDROIDS – CYBERGUY PICKS

Using cloud storage

Transferring data from an old laptop to a new one with cloud storage makes the process easy, but it’s also largely dependent on how much data you are transferring and how fast your internet speed is. Transferring data with a physical drive is always faster, but if you have a speedy internet connection and don’t want to buy additional accessories, then transferring via cloud storage is an excellent way to bring your new data over to a new computer.

  • Google Drive: Upload your files from your old computer to Google Drive, then download them to your new computer.
  • Dropbox: Similar to Google Drive but with different features and storage options.

Get a deeper dive into my top recommended cloud services here.

Transferring data from old laptop to new one

A woman working on her laptop (Kurt “CyberGuy” Knutsson)

Using network transfer

If you have tried using cloud storage to transfer your data but found it too slow, you can utilize a network transfer with an Ethernet cable or over Wi-Fi to make the process go faster.

Ethernet Cable: Connect both computers to the same network using an Ethernet cable, enable file sharing and transfer the files directly.

Wi-Fi: Ensure both computers are on the same Wi-Fi network, enable file sharing and transfer the files wirelessly.

BEST POWER STRIPS AND SURGE PROTECTORS 2025

Using third-party software

There’s a wide range of third-party software you can also use to transfer your data. We prefer EaseUS Todo PCTrans, which you can learn more about below:

EaseUS Todo PCTrans (PC) – This powerful data migration software simplifies transferring files, applications and user settings between computers on the same network. It offers a streamlined way to move your data without the hassle of manual transfers. Learn more about it here.

Migration Assistant (Mac) – Built into macOS, Migration Assistant allows you to easily transfer files, settings and applications from one Mac to another or from a Time Machine backup. This free tool ensures a smooth transition when setting up a new Mac. Learn more about it here.

If you are looking for an in-depth guide on the different ways to transfer data to a new laptop, see my in-depth guide here.

HOW TO REMOVE YOUR PRIVATE DATA FROM THE INTERNET

Essential steps to take when you get a new laptop or desktop

Buying a new computer is exciting, but beyond transferring your data, there are several important steps to ensure a smooth setup and optimal performance. Here’s what I recommend:

  • Transfer your data – Move your files, applications and settings from your old device.
  • Install your preferred browser – Get your favorite web browser set up for seamless browsing. See my picks here.
  • Set up your operating system – Configure Windows or macOS to match your preferences.
  • Register your hardware and software – Activate warranties and ensure your software is properly licensed.

For a step-by-step guide on everything to do when setting up a new computer, check out these tips: Setting up a new PCSetting up a new Mac.

And once you’ve got your new computer up and running, don’t forget to securely dispose of your old device to protect your data. Learn how to do that here.

BEST DESKTOP COMPUTERS FOR 2025

Kurt’s key takeaways

Buying a new computer is an exciting time, but there are a lot of different ways to set up your new computer and make it truly yours. We have several guides on everything you need to do with a new Windows computer or a new Mac, and you can always reach out to us via email if you have more questions.

What is your biggest concern when it comes to upgrading your technology? Let us know by writing us at Cyberguy.com/Contact.

For more of my tech tips and security alerts, subscribe to my free CyberGuy Report Newsletter by heading to Cyberguy.com/Newsletter.

Ask Kurt a question or let us know what stories you’d like us to cover.

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Copyright 2025 CyberGuy.com. All rights reserved.



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Bitcoin ‘Monte Carlo’ model forecasts $713K peak in 6 months

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Bitcoin (BTC) registered a daily and weekly close at $80,688 on March 9, the lowest close since Nov. 11, 2024.

Bitcoin also dropped below its key 200-day exponential moving average (200-D EMA) for the second time in two weeks, indicating further high time frame (HTF) weakness in the charts.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

While the Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to show “extreme fear” on March 10, one BTC market simulation still highlights bullish projections for the latter half of 2025.

Monte Carlo model signals an 800% BTC price rise

Mark Quant, a crypto researcher, performed a Monte Carlo simulation to analyze Bitcoin’s price, providing a six-month forecast for the crypto asset.

The Monte Carlo model is a computational method using random sampling to simulate price projections and assess risk. It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin Monte Carlo projections by Mark Quant. Source: X.com

Based on the initial price of $82,655, the study estimated a mean final price of $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, on a broader scale, the price was expected to fluctuate between $51,430, i.e., a 5th percentile return and $713,000 at the 95th percentile.

Related: Bitcoin slides another 3% — Is BTC price headed for $69K next?

However, it is important to note that a Monte Carlo model relies strongly on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that the asset value follows a random path with a constant parameter drift.

In this analysis, Bitcoin’s inherent volatility is built into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future shifts. Essentially, the Monte Carlo analysis remains as fitting as “rolling the dice.”

Last week, Quant also highlighted a correlation between the total crypto market cap and the global liquidity index, indicating that the TOTAL market cap value may reach new highs above $4 trillion in Q2 2025.

Bitcoin eyes new CME gap after $80K retest

Bitcoin price dropped 6.38% over the weekend, creating a fresh CME futures gap in the charts. The CME Bitcoin futures gap describes the price difference between the closing of CME Bitcoin futures trading on Friday and its reopening on Sunday evening.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin CME gap. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, the CME gap currently lies between $83,000 and $86,000, a fairly large gap of $3,000. Based on past behavior, Bitcoin tends to “fill” or return into these gaps on the higher time frame charts, with the previous seven gaps filled out in the past four months.

Mark Cullen, a technical analyst, also highlighted the CME gap, which took form over the weekend, and speculated the possibility of a short squeeze before the US markets open on March 10. However, the trader added,

“Lose the weekly open at ~80K and there is a gap down to low 70K’s.”

Related: US dollar plunge powers Bitcoin bull case, but other metrics concern: Analyst

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.